James Carville

- An old school Democrat responds to the new candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket.

This week, on "Firing Line".

- Nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy.

That includes personal ambition.

- [Margaret] After President Joe Biden stepped down from his reelection bid, Democrats this week quickly united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.

- She's gonna have to get good fast.

She's gonna have to introduce herself, because she's really not that well-known.

- James Carville led Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, and advised top Democrats for decades.

- I think of an old calendar, I think of George Bush's face on it.

Man, you got to get down here and take control of this.

Put somebody in charge of this thing and get this thing moving.

We're about to die down here.

- [Margaret] Carville, known as the Ragin' Cajun, had been urging Biden to step aside long before his disastrous debate performance with Donald Trump.

- He's too old.

The country wants a different choice.

- [Margaret] Carville is candid about how Harris fared as a presidential candidate four years ago.

- There's no doubt, her campaign in 2020 was just godawful.

- [Margaret] But can Kamala Harris turn the party's prospects around?

- We are not going back.

(audience cheering) - [Margaret] What does James Carville say now?

- [Announcer 1] "Firing Line" with Margaret Hoover is made possibly in part by Robert Granieri, Vanessa and Henry Cornell, The Fairweather Foundation, and by the following.

Corporate funding is provided by Stephens Inc. - James Carville, welcome to "Firing Line".

- Well Margaret, honestly, I'm glad to be here.

I've always been a fan of the show.

- You were among the first prominent Democrats to sound the alarm about President Biden's poll numbers, and his ability to campaign.

How do you feel now that he's dropped out?

- Well, I mean, I feel a great sense of relief, and this sounds self-serving, but I actually think he's a lot happier now.

I just don't think, I'm gonna be 80 shortly, unfortunately for me, with the kind of ravages of old age, and its limitations, and like you and a few other people in the country have some idea of what that job entails.

And I just never thought it was a particularly good idea.

And fortunately, President came to that conclusion.

We're in a different place now.

- Let me ask you, I mean, within 36 hours of Vice President Kamala Harris launching her campaign, she received endorsements from enough Democratic delegates to secure the nomination.

And of course, you had warned earlier this month that there should instead be a mini primary process, and warned Democrats against anointing Harris- - Right.

- As the, so have Democrats fallen in line behind Harris too quickly without considering alternatives?

- Well first of all, no.

Now I will address something that I think is a problem, and that's this over-giddiness in the Democratic Party.

You're in for a tough fight.

I mean, it's great.

I understand people feel good, but don't get ahead of yourself.

You got a hard, hard campaign ahead of you.

What happened in American politics is quite simple.

People did not like the choice they were given.

They wanted something different.

And they got something different, and they're happy about it.

But that's the extent of that it means anything.

It's not anything transformative, anything else.

72% of people didn't like the choice.

They're glad to have a different choice.

That's where we are.

- Sure.

But there is this question about whether the Democrat Party is being anti-democratic, right?

Why are you not concerned about that?

- Can I give you an honest answer?

- Please.

- That's about the stupidest argument I've ever heard.

I don't know of a single Democrat that feels disenfranchised right now.

I really don't.

Look, would I have preferred three weeks ago we had an open thing, and people could see the talent in the party?

Yeah, but that's not to be, and what I like about all this Vice Presidential speculation is that the choices are talented and they're abundant.

And that's a good place to be.

- I mean, I don't have to tell you Vice President Kamala Harris has never been highly popular- - Right.

- In the context of her partnership with Joe Biden.

- True, true.

- You know, her approval rating on average is actually slightly lower than Joe Biden's.

So why, can you just explain to the uninitiated, how the Democrat Party has gone from doubting her viability as a Vice Presidential candidate to fully embracing her as the nominee of the party to take on Trump in such a short period of time.

- Look, it's where we are.

And people understand that.

And ifs and buts was beers and nuts, we'd all have a heck of a party.

But the only people that are upset where we are are non Democrats.

Democrats are actually, for the most part, pretty satisfied with where we are, and we appreciate everybody's concern for our party, but it's our party, and we kinda like where we are right now, and I noticed that Fox is terribly concerned that there's a lack of democracy in the Democratic Party, or this, and that.

You know, I really appreciate all y'alls concern for us, but we're actually not very unhappy people right now.

- Tell me about the path to 270.

For Biden, it required winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those blue wall states.

- Right.

- The Harris campaign issued a memo this week that indicated they might have some Sun Belt states in play.

Is her path to 270 the same, or is it a broader map than President Biden was looking at?

- Look, if we're able to do better in Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina, that's great.

But still fundamentally, I see those three, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as being absolutely critical when hopefully we'll do what happened in 2020, we'll bring some new states along.

That's certainly possible, but the basic math does not change.

- So what does that mean about who she picks as her Vice Presidential candidate?

Can she expand the map, or solidify the map, with a Vice Presidential candidate?

- I think what you want in a Vice Presidential pick as opposed to try to get a state is you want something that shows chemistry.

I think in American politics today, people want something new and different, and not hopefully she makes a pick that uses chemistry as its chief motivator, and not electoral math, because I don't think electoral math works that good.

- Look, if the polls are right, Trump has become significantly more popular amongst Hispanics and black men in recent years.

- Right.

- And Vice President Harris hasn't fared particularly well with black voters, at least in her previous presidential campaign, but do you think Democrats will expect that they will perform even better this time around with a black woman at the top of the ticket?

- Well no, they're not gonna perform, in 2020, black was 12% of the electorate.

President Biden got, like, 91%.

That's gonna be hard to replicate.

Having said that, I do think, and a lot of people do, that she's exciting people.

She got 800, I saw this, which was impressive, 808,000 contributions overnight.

60% plus were first time donors.

I don't know what it means, but it means something.

- It's a measure of enthusiasm, for sure.

- Yeah, it's a measure of something.

All right?

And so there's an entire mood change, but I don't think we can count on replicating the 2020 coalition.

But I'm not sure Trump can replicate his 2020 coalition, either.

It's always this, woe be the Democrats.

The Democrats are falling apart.

What happened to the Democrat Party?

I got news for you.

There's nothing wrong.

We haven't lost an election in two years.

Has anybody noticed that?

But the whole Dem Party are Republican intelligentsia is diagnosing our problem and telling us what we need to do.

Well thank you, we're doing just fine.

Why don't you give advice to the Republican Party, because they can't seem to win an election.

- Not so sure they're taking any advice.

Look, can Vice President Harris put other demographic groups, who looked like, two weeks ago, they might sit out this election?

I'm thinking about Gen Z. I'm thinking about groups that were just not as motivated.

Do you think she can put new groups of voters in play for this election?

- I think she can do better, yes.

I do.

I'm not sure, I don't know Gen Z from Gen Y, but Gen something or other.

But generation under 30, who we're not doing very well with.

And what I'm gonna be looking for when I read, I'll probably give it to next week or week after, I'm gonna see what our numbers are under 30 compared to where they were.

I'm gonna see our black number, what it is, and what it was, and try to compare the two in my mind, and what I'm not gonna be looking for, or expecting to see, is perfection, but I'm hoping to see some improvement there, because we were not doing very well in those two essential parts of the Democrat Coalition.

- If you were running this campaign, you would be noticing that Republicans are already honing their attacks against Vice President Harris as too progressive.

They're pointing to her record when she ran in 2020 calling for removal of the filibuster so she could pass the Green New Deal, promising to ban fracking and offshore drilling.

She had said she was open to abolishing ICE, Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

- Right.

- That she was open to providing healthcare for undocumented immigrants.

The hit is going to be from the Trump campaign.

- Right.

- And from the Republicans- - Right.

- That she is dangerously progressive.

How do you advise her as a candidate now?

- First of all, every, I don't know how many business leaders said that Trump's economic plan would ruin the economy.

I don't know how to tell you this, but you wanna bet that all kinds of national security people, retired military people, don't come out and say that Trump is a horrible threat to the security of the United States?

I don't know how to tell you this.

He wants to get out of NATO.

He has 26 women that credibly accused him of sexual impropriety.

The other side gets to play.

There's this whole feeling that the only people that get to play this game are the Republicans, and that the Democrats are just doomed to sit there and get beat up by them.

And I don't think, I hope, I know I'm not gonna play that game, and I hope that she doesn't play that game.

- No, but how should she respond to the attacks that she's too progressive?

Should she run as a centrist?

- I can't, do you want me to respond to every one?

The fracking thing.

There have been more drilling permits issued under the Biden Administration than any other administration.

I actually don't know if that's an accomplishment, but it's a fact.

The crime rate in the United States is down, and down significantly since Donald Trump was President.

That's a fact, okay?

I mean, we can argue anything- - So you're arguing she should run as a centrist, then.

She should run to the center, not as a progressive.

- She should, I don't know, run to the center, run, I don't know what that is.

Triangulate.

I think that she has a record.

She's gonna have to come up with some proposals.

But I think a lot of it is gonna depend on her ability to define herself, and I actually think that she's gonna have to introduce herself, because she's really not that well known.

I mean, there's a caricature of her on Fox News, but most people don't know a lot about her, and of course the Republicans are gonna try to introduce her on their terms.

I don't blame them.

I'd do the same thing.

And she's gonna have to get good fast.

That's all I can say.

And I'm not very giddy about this.

I'm not cocky at all.

I think we have a tough election ahead of us.

- But James Carville, would James Carville recommend that she run on her law and order background?

Even though she ran away from it in 2020 when she was in a Democrat primary?

- Right.

I think that she should.

I think one thing that she should do is she was Attorney General in California, and she had a very strong record of consumer issues.

I think she should announce when I'm President, there's gonna be a Justice Department Task Force to investigate price rigging and price gouging that took place in corporate America.

That's what I think.

Now, people are gonna say, oh, that's anti-corporate, that's anti-Wall Street, that's, okay, go ahead.

I know.

If you think these people don't rig prices, don't have cutouts and a way to talk to each other, I just disagree with you.

- The news this week also surrounds foreign policy, of course Benjamin Netanyahu is in the United States.

He's addressing a Joint Session of Congress.

There's some question about whether the Vice President's choice to skip that Joint Session of Congress is a signal or indication that she may take a different approach on the Middle East and Israel than President Biden has.

What do you think?

- Well first of all, my own opinion of him, he's a criminal, and I don't think that they should show up, and I think he's influenced American foreign policy to keep himself out of the penitentiary.

So if you wanna know what the truth of the matter is, I don't think much of Bibi Netanyahu, and if I would've been her, I wouldn't have gone to listen to him speak, either.

- Do you think her skipping the Joint Session of Congress can be interpreted simply as a snub to Bibi, not a change in Middle East policy or strategy from the Biden Administration?

- Well, that's certainly the way I interpret it, because I want to interpret it like this.

I think there should be a Jewish state in the eastern Mediterranean in perpetuity, but I think Bibi Netanyahu is an ethical and security disaster of the first order.

And we should recognize that, and US foreign policy should be based on those two assumptions.

- Let me ask you about something you told Maureen Dowd earlier this year.

You compared Harris to a great baseball player, with a lot of hype and potential that fizzles out in the Major Leagues.

- Right.

- Has your assessment of her just sheer capability as a candidate changed?

- Well, a couple things- - Or is it just where we are?

- First of all, I have been told by numerous people, whose judgment I trust, that she's really become a lot more self-confident, that she's become, you know, much surer of herself.

I saw her in Wisconsin on television, and what I generally do is I turn the sound off, and just look at the visual.

She looks self-confident.

There's no doubt, her campaign in 2020 was just godawful.

And I think the problem she had was is her stupid strategist said you can't talk about being a prosecutor or an AG, so she didn't have anything to talk about.

She was just out there trying to go through some laundry list of idiotic, you know, well if I say, you know, a position.

Now, actually who she is is actually kind of helpful.

And I don't think she's gonna have any problem talking about her being a prosecutor, or being a consumer, or an AG.

That's part of the political landscape, but I hope, and the early indications are, that she's improved.

I think human beings can actually grow.

I know I'm almost 80.

I think I give myself a little credit in life.

I've grown a little bit.

I've learned something.

I've acquired something I didn't have before.

And am I worried that she turns out to be not that great a candidate, but I worry about everything.

But do I have reasons to believe that she's gonna grow into being a good candidate?

I do, yes.

I have no other choice, I mean, this is all I can do, is hope and pray, but I think it's based on something other than a wish.

But we'll see.

She's got a lot to show.

I mean, she's got a big job.

No question about that.

- When Vice President George H.W.

Bush was running for President, he appeared on "Firing Line" with William F. Buckley Jr. in a forum in 1987, and he was asked how he would differentiate himself from President Reagan.

Take a look at this.

- What I'll tell you is- (audience applauding) I'm not gonna start by doing now that which I haven't done for six and a half, seven years.

We're here to beat Democrats, and I'm not gonna go down and fine tune differences with President Reagan.

I've resisted it.

I think it's just taking something we've done, and building on it, not going back and retroactively trying to distance myself from the present.

- George H.W.

Bush is one of four people in US history who have successful run for President as a sitting Vice President.

Why is this so difficult to do, James?

- Well, I don't know if that answer would fly today.

- Why not?

- You know, I think we were living in a different time in 1988, and you have to be very careful because you're trying to be something new, but the advantage that she has with Trump in the race, she doesn't have to do that much to be the candidate of change.

No one looks at Trump and sees a change candidate, all right?

And he always talks about it, he wants to go back to the time that he was President, and I think Biden, I will say this very publicly.

The best decision of the entire Biden presidency was just getting the hell out of Afghanistan.

Just go, all right?

Now, I was highly criticized, and all of the people said that the problem with Afghanistan was the exit.

And what I say is, no.

It was the entrance.

No one ever looked good losing a war.

But she certainly would be entitled to say I'd urge to have a more orderly timetable, and all the elites and Dem Party people would love that.

- She might get a few Republicans, too.

- She might get a few Republicans, right.

Because Republicans get us in the war, and then they blame the Democrats when Democrats get us out of war, but they gotta give Republicans credit.

They got us out of Vietnam, which was the stupidest thing we ever did.

And that was a different time in American politics.

As nostalgic as we might be for it, it's a time that's passed, and I think the Vice President's campaign is gonna have to acknowledge that and adjust to it.

- You said recently, a second Trump term could bring, "Lawlessness on a scale we can't comprehend."

- [James] Right.

- [Margaret] And potentially, "The end of the Constitution."

- It could.

- In the wake of the attempted assassination against President Trump, there was a call from conservatives and Republicans at the Republican National Committee to, and you saw this at the Convention, at the Republicans Convention, to bring down the rhetoric, to be responsible with the public rhetoric, and I wonder if you think it is exceedingly alarmist to call this next election existential, or if you really believe it- - I do.

- Unpack that for us.

Why is it?

- Okay let's back up.

Did you listen to Trump's speech at the Republican National Committee?

- Every single word.

- Did you see anything unifying in the last 30 minutes of that speech?

Because no one else did, if you did.

- And his Vice Presidential nominee had heightened rhetoric that is- - So we had this unfortunate event in Pennsylvania.

We also had an unfortunate event in Las Vegas.

We had an unfortunate event in Uvalde.

We had an unfortunate event in Buffalo.

We had an unfortunate event in South Florida.

The one thing that none of these events had anything to do with was exaggerated political language.

Nothing.

- That's right.

- What it had to do was young males, all white, who couldn't get a girl, but could get a gun.

All right?

That's the issue, all right?

There ain't nothing, this is nothing political.

It may be time to tone down the language, it may be time for all of this, but these shootings have everything to do with access to guns that, by the way, were outlawed from 1994 to 2004.

That's the problem in the country.

We got too easy access to guns that human beings shouldn't have, other than people that are in the Armed Forces.

- On the question of whether this election is existential?

- Right, it is.

- Is it existential?

- Of course it is.

- Tell me why.

- Well, let's talk Project 2025, of which all of his people have had.

Let's talk about getting rid of NATO and alliances.

Let's talk about him giving China the green light to invade Taiwan.

Yes, he did.

Yes he did.

- He did.

- He said we're 6,500 miles away.

They're 75 miles away.

And if you don't think that these alliances are critical to the United States, or that the ship manufacturing that goes on in Taiwan is essential to everything we do in the United States, if you don't think our relationships with Western Germany are critical, if you think that we ought to get rid of the Federal Civil Service, all right?

If you think being a dictator from day one, on day one, is not a threat, we're going to disagree on that.

I think with every fabric of my body that Donald Trump represents a threat to the Constitution of the United States.

He is a tremendous threat to world order, and I am scared to death about the prospect of him being President again, and I feel very comfortable in saying that.

I don't have any regrets, and I really don't think that I'm going to have any in the near future.

- In the first 24 hours of Vice President Harris' campaign, she raised a record $81 million.

- (chuckling) Right.

- Democrats have been significantly less enthusiastic about Biden than Republicans were about Trump, until now.

What is the key for the Vice President to sustain this excitement for her candidacy throughout the rest of the campaign?

- That's the key question.

And the first thing is to recognize what happened.

What happened was that people wanted something different, and that she just projects the fact that she is, you know, excited about the future, and there was no policy that anyone was pushing.

There was no particular group that was behind this.

It was just a general feeling that people wanted a different choice than Donald Trump and President Biden, and they got it.

And there is some, now look.

She's gonna get slaughtered.

They're coming out, and this is just part of the, no different than it was any other time.

And they have gotta get up and get ready, and they've gotta be able to defend and attack at the same time, and there's gonna be a time of struggle of definition is to who Vice President Harris is, and we better be ready for that.

But I feel like we are in a better position today than we were Sunday morning, and we're doing this interview on Wednesday, so I'll take small victories where I get 'em.

(laughing) - James Carville, American political guru.

- Yeah.

(laughing) - Thank you for taking the time to join me on "Firing Line".

Thank you for your insights- - A big fan, big fan.

I had a speech with William F. Buckley in the late 90s, and it was in Stillwater in Oklahoma state.

So the guy was taking us back to the airport, and he said, "I have a capital idea.

"Why don't we ask this young man to stop "and get us a couple of scotches for the car?"

And I said, "Yeah, that is a capital idea, Mr.

Buckley."

I said, "Great idea, we can agree on that."

And we had a double scotch, and I didn't have the heart to tell him I like bourbon better, I just said, "Fine.

"I'm not gonna argue with William F.

Buckley."

(laughing) So I do have fond memories of him, and I have fond memories of "Firing Line".

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