Washington Week with The Atlantic full episode, 7/12/24

FRANKLIN FOER: This was supposed to be the week that settled Joe Biden's political fate.

But one press conference and many closed-door meetings later, he's still twisting in the wind.

Democrats, welcome to Purgatory, next.

Good evening, and welcome to Washington Week.

I'm Franklin Foer.

Jeffrey Goldberg is away.

Two weeks after Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance, he is just hanging on to his candidacy.

The number of congressional Democrats calling for him to leave the race keeps ticking upwards, but it's hardly a tidal wave.

And the president's performance at a press conference Thursday night was fluent enough to prevent a total collapse of his campaign.

Still, on the eve of the Republican convention, Biden seems more determined than ever to press on, while Democratic anxiety about a Donald Trump landslide cannot be easily dismissed.

Joining me to discuss this and more, Mark Leibovich is my colleague and a staff writer at The Atlantic, Saleha Mohsin is the senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg, Ashley Parker is senior national political correspondent for the Washington Post, and Ali Vitali is a Capitol Hill correspondent for NBC News and the author of Electable, Why America Hasn't Put a Woman in the White House Yet.

Ashley, this was supposed to be a make or break week for Joe Biden, and the sort of cliche that Mark Leibovich has would likely mock and probably, I think, actually has mocked in press.

Yes?

MARK LEIBOVICH, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: It started hot here.

FRANKLIN FOER: And so here we are at week's end.

Has Joe Biden's fate been sealed?

Is it any more clear now at the end of the week than it was at the beginning?

ASHLEY PARKER, Senior National Political Correspondent, The Washington Post: Well, I think the challenge that's a little unstated is that every week and every appearance can be a break week for Joe Biden, but it is hard to have a make week, because he could have another disastrous performance politically, like the debate.

But when he clears these bars and these hurdles that Democratic lawmakers say they want to see, the bar is incredibly low, right?

Like the bar is remaining upright and speaking in full sentences and not trailing off and hopefully not confusing too many names and countries and showing a little policy command, which he did in that press conference, but there's just about nothing he can do that would actually reassure Democrats.

So, every single day between now and election day, if he stays in the race, is either there's the possibility of the break or there's the possibility of like that wasn't awful, and like we live to fight another day.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes, inspiring.

Mark, I want to play footage from the said news conference Thursday as Biden tried to justify his candidacy.

JOE BIDEN, U.S. President: What changed was The gravity of the situation I inherited in terms of the economy, our foreign policy and domestic division.

What I realized was my longtime in the Senate had equipped me to have the wisdom to know how to deal with the Congress to get things done.

We got more major legislation passed that no one thought would happen, and I want to finish it, to get that finished.

FRANKLIN FOER: Now give us the subtext.

As Biden listens to all the rumblings, leaks, and doubts, what's actually going through his head?

MARK LEIBOVICH: Well, I mean, right there, I think, The subtext there is that I probably wasn't going to run at all, but Donald Trump was there in 2020, and I decided to run again because, like most of us thought that he wasn't going to be around again in 2024.

Lo and behold, he is.

I have to stay here.

I think the larger thing is he probably just, like a lot of people in very powerful positions, doesn't want to give up power.

He loves the gig for all the obvious reasons, and it's hard to go away at a certain point.

âI do think -- I mean, to Ashley's point earlier, I mean, the rarity of his public appearances, his unscripted public appearances since two weeks ago, I mean, I was here, I guess, two Fridays ago, the morning after the debate, and I remember all of us were saying well the next 48 hours, the next 72 hours, will be key.

We've been saying this for two weeks now, for more than two weeks now.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes.

MARK LEIBOVICH: The idea that, I mean he could have immediately alleviated doubts by just coming out pretty much every day for 30 minutes, doing something like he did yesterday, think on his feet, prove that, that it was the bad night that he claimed it was, and we would be having a very different conversation tonight, I'm confident of that.

FRANKLIN FOER: Now, in all of your experience covering Joe Biden, and experience can be a virtue, right?

What type of argument do you think could break through with Joe Biden?

Is there anything that -- MARK LEIBOVICH: He could to step away.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes, is there any sort of argument that could be made to him that he'd be responsive to that would persuade him to give way?

MARK LEIBOVICH: I'm sure he has seen all the arguments, I mean, the polls are bad.

I mean, he's not looking good, he's not convincing anyone.

I think though, it's not so much the what as the who.

I mean, I think if it were someone, obviously, in his very, very tight inner circle, someone in his family, someone in the Donilon, Klain, Ricchetti sort of inner circle that would probably have a bigger impact.

But, I mean, I'm sure he's seen and heard all the noise, which he'll just dismiss and have quite, I think a lot of disdain for, and it's been defensive about.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes, we just mentioned the, the inner circle and I want to -- Ron Klain, who is his chief of staff, indisputably part of that inner circle, was on television this morning talking about his candidacy and I want to listen to that now.

RON KLAIN, Former White House Chief of Staff: Voters all across the country went and voted in primary after primary and they voted to re-nominate Joe Biden as the leader of the Democratic ticket.

And I think this isn't like some soccer game where some shadowy group of people on the sidelines get to run new players out onto the field at the last minute.

The donors don't get to decide, the voters decided.

FRANKLIN FOER: That's the official line coming out of Biden land, but there was a New York Times article yesterday, which quoted anonymous people within the White House, within the broader Biden circle, who seem to have doubts about whether he can prevail.

And the question is -- well, I guess one thing that the article mentioned is that those doubts haven't actually percolated all the way up to Joe Biden himself.

And so what's happening within Biden land?

Is he just -- is he encased?

Is he buffeted?

Why haven't they brought those doubts to him?

SALEHA MOHSIN, Senior Washington Correspondent, Bloomberg News: For one thing, to be human is to have doubts that an 81-year-old man can serve another four years running the largest country in the world, the most influential country in the world.

So, it is not a surprise that people inside the White House have doubts.

And I think it's strange for the White House to categorically refute that kind of a narrative.

We're talking about Biden has -- maybe he's obviously seen polling figures and that people are not convinced.

I don't know that he has.

There's reporting out there that shows that -- and we see the pattern as well in the way he governs and the way he's been managed and manages that his staff, he has a close cadre of very loyal people around him and that inner sanctum might grow when things are good and might tighten when things are bad.

And if it's tightening right now, as reports right now show, then it's a handful of people, Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, Ricchetti, his wife, and maybe Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer can make a phone call.

But are they really giving him the cold, hard facts?

So far, the only proof of that is that Hakeem Jeffries has based on his statement.

Otherwise, I don't know what information he's really, truly getting.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes.

Ashley, do you have a sense of who those people are who have doubts within what is described as the inner circle?

How close are they to the president's ear and do they have the ability to get in to express those doubts?

ASHLEY PARKER: It's a great question.

It feels like at this point, the people who have the doubts.

And, again, it's unclear also how widely and vocally they're expressing them.

I would describe as sort of outer inner, but not that inner, inner core.

And just briefly going back to what you asked about Mark, a couple days after the debate, there was this sense that was mainly based on vibes, but that everything was going to happen quickly and Joe Biden was going to step down.

And in that moment, I started reporting to try to figure out what would be the most compelling argument and who would be the most compelling people.

And one thing that was interesting, and as you've seen these flashes, Joe Biden gets very defensive and digs in.

And so a lot of people, and these are people who served with him, who worked for him, who worked with him, said that they thought, in addition to the messenger being so important, one message would be to come to him and not -- and look at that debate, look at your performance, you need to step down, but to talk about, you've been a great president.

You have this amazing legacy.

You've passed more meaningful legislation than LBJ, right?

Now, continue that by stepping aside.

SALEHA MOHSIN: I do have to wonder though, how our conversation might be different had the bridge candidacy turned into Kamala Harris rising.

That was kind of the expectation four years ago that she would step up and be also not only step up herself but be brought in as someone waiting in the wings.

So, right now -- ALI VITALI, Capitol Hill Correspondent, NBC News: Bringing in part of it and never fully happen, as we all know.

Well, certainly.

I mean, when you talk about the idea of Kamala Harris and the space that she occupies in that White House, I think that what was so appealing about her is the ways in which she really brings the energy around being historic.

And also what's kind of scary about her because the job of a vice president is to be second, to not make news, to not draw attention, the fear is that if you let her do that too much, she would.

Of course, the border was an immediate moment that became a barrier.

And, of course, that's something that I hear about from Hill sources, too.

But when you think about who's talking to the president right now, yes, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden had a lunch that was a well-timed lunch in the aftermath of them then having to go talk to the campaign and talk to the White House and reassure everybody.

But in terms of who's giving him the hard truth of this, I think you're right to point out Hakeem Jeffries being the only person from the Hill that we know of.

FRANKLIN FOER: Can you take us inside that meeting with Hakeem Jeffries and tell us what you know about how that went down and what the pressures that he brought into that meeting from?

I mean, one set of people Joe Biden historically has respect for and listens to you are his fellow politicians.

ALI VITALI: Fellow politicians.

But I think it's why we've been watching the Senate so closely and watching the ways that Schumer has been able to guard the ranks of Democrats.

I think the fact that Peter Welch is the only Democrat who's come out right now and said Biden should step down.

He's a freshman senator.

Biden is someone who respects the institution of the Senate, but he respects the people who have made up the institution of the Senate.

MARK LEIBOVICH: Especially if you've served with them.

ALI VITALI: Correct.

And the fact that you're not seeing any of those old guard Senators come out, that's notable.

In the Hakeem Jeffries conversation, oddly enough, I missed my invitation to that meeting, but they are happy to extend it the next time.

But based on what I've heard from Democratic lawmakers on the Hill, they are apoplectic, pulling their hair out.

There have been tears in meetings with frontliners.

I mean, we've reported all of this on NBC, and just the fact that there is so much angst, if Hakeem Jeffries relayed even half of that, that was a pretty stark conversation.

FRANKLIN FOER: But, Mark, why -- you have politicians who have a pretty good sense of their own political self interest, and they're saying these things in private.

The question is, why aren't they saying them in public?

MARK LEIBOVICH: Because they're scared.

I mean, they're scared of -- They're scared of Joe Biden.

They're scared of some kind of -- They're scared of, I mean, the base that still stands by Joe Biden.

I mean, it's a similar, but not a very similar dynamic of what's going on in the Republican Party.

I mean, most Republican lawmakers are terrified of Donald Trump, terrified of Donald Trump's voters.

And, I mean, it's a different kind of terror because, I mean, it's not like -- it's not as menacing.

It's not as threatening as you would see on the other side, to say the least.

But, look, I mean, it's a really -- I think it's a hard truth to tell publicly.

Presumably Biden is getting a lot of this privately.

I think, though, I mean it's pretty clear that he is -- yes, he does seem to be getting more and more stubborn, more and more dug in.

But also I think this is a window into his decision-making and the decision-making of his team which seems to be going very, very slowly.

ASHLEY PARKER: There's also just a human element where it's a hard discussion to have.

I mean, I think both of you put it in articles you wrote for The Atlantic of this, and voters have mentioned it to me, strategist, politicians have mentioned it, the conversation of having to take -- the cliche conversation of having to take away the keys of an elderly, aging loved one a parent or a grandparent.

And even I've dealt with this in my family, even in families where you know it is the right decision, it is almost a devastatingly impossible one to have.

And you have a lot of lawmakers who don't want to have that with someone for whom they have a lot of respect and admiration.

SALEHA MOHSIN: I would have to say, though, that, for one -- like adding to the human piece, it is really hard for other elderly candidates in Congress to say this elderly and (INAUDIBLE) to give up his keys.

ALI VITALI: The irony has been so stark.

SALEHA MOHSIN: Yes, absolutely.

And the other point to make is that if lawmakers are scared of Biden, they should also be scared of Trump if they are Democrats and they want to win the White House.

Bloomberg News has an analysis right now that says that Joe Biden is fighting two fights right now.

He's fighting the fight to beat Donald Trump and he's fighting with Democrats to persuade them that he's their leader.

And which one's more scary, Joe Biden as a candidate or Trump as president?

If you're a Democrat, what's more scary?

ALI VITALI: But we've watched Nancy Pelosi make this same negotiation within her own ranks, right?

She was someone who there were many criticisms of the fact that she was getting too old, not in terms of acuity because that woman has full control of that chamber and every member has the fear of God in them about her.

But we watched her pass the torch and now we watch the role that she plays in this party, reverence for her.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes, well, what -- I mean, on the Pelosi point, I mean, I think there was a lot of expectation that this week she would intervene in a more forceful way, especially how she set things up at the beginning of the week.

She was the first person this week to use the Leibovich cliche about the crucial week, and here we are at the end of the week.

Do you foresee her taking a firmer stand?

ALI VITALI: She made the NATO argument effectively when she went on Morning Joe and said it's the president's decision to make and was, of course, faced with the fact that he has already very much decided that he is the nominee and she said, well, he'll decide.

And I think NATO was a part of it, and I certainly heard that from some Democrats on the Hill who were trying to figure out their timing.

NATO is over, but now it's the Republican convention.

And for all of those lawmakers who might want to come forward, they also are very much clear that they want the contrast with Trump.

What better week to let the former president speak for himself about the myriad number of issues that they think are going to be mind-changing for voters, things like abortion, which is palpable and energizing.

Let Trump take credit for stripping abortion access from women.

I think that Democrats don't want to intervene with that.

We were talking about this.

Will they stay quiet?

Probably not.

But timing is really bad no matter when you try to knock the president off.

MARK LEIBOVICH: I mean, I would say the timing's only bad because it's taken so long.

I mean, look, I mean, the Republicans -- I mean, for as long as this goes on, the Democrats are really, really going to be struggling.

I mean, the Republicans are going to say what they're going to say.

I mean, this is going to be a Trump week.

I mean, you can never really predict it, but you have a general sense of what it's like.

But you can imagine the kind of chest-thumping, MAGA Mardi Gras, that they can kind of rightly point to the actual chaos of the other side, the actual lack of confidence.

I mean, Biden was hobbled to begin with, but now they can actually point to, look, not even Democrats want him.

And they're going to take total advantage of that.

FRANKLIN FOER: But in the way that Ashley framed things at the very beginning, that there's breaking, but there's no making, can any of you envision a way in which he could actually staunch the bleeding, he can begin to reverse the tide?

SALEHA MOHSIN: I really can't.

I can see the reverse, where the game of whack-a-mole, where one of the three pillars, either his friends on the Hill and donors and polls all show that he needs to go, actually happens at the same time.

In reverse, he can't become five years or ten years younger.

ALI VITALI: It's the vibes.

And I know that that sounds silly, and you said this word before, but it is.

The Hill has such a bad vibe.

It's like this misery merry-go-round right now.

I think a lot of people were almost hoping that the presser would make it a more clear cut argument for them, but he actually had, other than one little flub, a really good night of nuanced, complex conversation around policy, especially comparatively.

But when you're grading the president on a curve, that's not great, and I think lawmakers don't really know where the off ramp is here, but you can't solve vibes with like tangible things.

That's not how it works.

ASHLEY PARKER: And in a certain way is the original sin, according to Democrats, was that 18 or so months ago, Joe Biden didn't do what he originally implied he would do, which is to be a bridge to the next generation.

Once he doesn't do that and you get to the timing, as Mark said, six weeks from the Democratic convention, four months from Election Day, Democrats, and this is why you're seeing all this disarray to again use a cliche, they're faced with three subpar options.

Prop up a candidate who they privately and some publicly don't believe can beat Donald Trump, try to convince him to step aside and coalesce around his vice president, who some have a number of concerns about, that she could beat Donald Trump, or try to convince him to step aside and then try to somehow beat bypass his historic, first black female vice president to a light on a white man or a woman who also, to be fair, hasn't been tested on the national stage and could very well be sort of a Ron DeSantis for Democrats.

There are no good options at this point for Dems.

SALEHA MOHSIN: And it's that wait for an unmitigated disaster.

I mean, I had Democratic aides on the Hill saying before the press conference, we're hoping it's clear cut.

It's terrible, so the path ahead is easier.

But now, like everyone is saying, we're in purgatory.

FRANKLIN FOER: Right.

MARK LEIBOVICH: But I also think it's important to point out that it's not so much -- I mean, I think Democrats are obviously terrified that Biden is not going to prevail, can't prevail, might lose really badly in a way that extends to the House and Senate.

But it's also that he can't perform.

I mean, the idea that they have been so sparse with his time.

I mean, even before the debate, I mean, the non-Super Bowl thing, the historic low number of press conferences, just interviews, national outlets (ph).

I mean, I don't -- I mean, I think it's notable that Trump keeps going out and taunting him, saying, hey, let's debate anytime, anywhere.

And, you know, I assume no one in the White House is entertaining that, basically Trump giving them a mulligan.

FRANKLIN FOER: So, the dam hasn't broken.

Will the dam break?

Is there anything that would cause the dam to break if he performs the way that he performed on Thursday night, which was fluent and competent?

ALI VITALI: Yes.

Look, if you do another -- if you do the Thursday from two weeks ago with the debate, yes, the dam will break.

If you do the Thursday that we just saw, what's today, Friday, time doesn't matter anymore, but if you do the presser, then I think it continues to stretch on.

FRANKLIN FOER: Well, what's the psyche, what's the psychological makeup of House Democrats who are having this external - - internal freak out but not projecting it really externally?

How do they make their way through the next couple months?

ALI VITALI: Every day this week, I've gotten a text message that says the dam's going to break today.

And I think that sort of tells the story.

Hashtag vibes, I'm big on the vibes, but the Hill has had a very bad vibe.

I wonder, and I've heard competing views on this, now that they are home for recess for a week, is it better that they are all individually on their own and can be with their families?

Does that make them worse or better, more likely to come out?

Or is it better that they're not all here and riling each other up?

I don't know.

ASHLEY PARKER: And when you talk about performance, it's not just Biden's performance to reassure, it's that the whole Biden theory of the case, which they've been quite clear about is that you need a candidate who can make the case against Donald Trump, the way that Joe Biden wins is not when it's a referendum on him when it is, as he says, a choice between me and not the almighty but the alternative.

And Joe Biden, even when he is giving, you know, perfectly fine nuanced answers on foreign policy, as he did in that press conference, so far on the debate stage, Trump lied repeatedly in pretty obvious and clear ways, and Joe Biden was not nimble enough to point that out during that bad debate.

And even during that press conference, there were plenty of opportunities where a more nimble, more focused candidate would have taken those questions, answered them and said, you're asking about my mental acuity, let me point out these seven things I think are troubling with Donald Trump.

And Joe Biden cannot or has not shown in any way he is capable of doing what you need to do to win.

FRANKLIN FOER: Let's step back and look at the map and look at the actual politics of this.

Is there a pathway that Joe Biden has now for victory?

What does it look like?

And when the Trump people talk about a landslide that's impending, like is that a justifiable sense of confidence that they bring to the table?

ASHLEY PARKER: There is a path.

You can read all about it in The Washington Post tomorrow morning.

But it is an incredibly narrow path.

It was already narrow before the debate and there is basically, Joe Biden's team put out a memo that says, our strongest path is through the, quote/unquote, blue wall, that's Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

But a lot of Democrats privately and even publicly told me they feel that in this moment that is just about the only path.

And then conversely I talked to some Trump people who -- I talked to Trump's pollster who was gloating about he stopped counting after he got to 25 different paths to the White House for Donald Trump.

Now, are there actually 25 paths?

Probably not or probably not very likely or plausible ones, but just the fact that that operation has the confidence to say something like that on the record gives you a sense of where this race stands.

FRANKLIN FOER: Mark, let's just pause and reflect upon this moment.

I mean, do you think that there's the possibility of a Trump landslide?

And kind of what does that say about the Democratic Party, maybe America, that we're on the brink of this?

MARK LEIBOVICH: Yes.

My theory of the case is that the dam will break and someone will take away the car keys.

I just wanted to get that out of the way.

FRANKLIN FOER: In the next crucial week?

MARK LEIBOVICH: Yes.

No, I mean, a landslide is possible.

Look, it doesn't matter if it's a landslide or not.

If Donald Trump wins, I mean, that is the catastrophic scenario that Democrats have been dreading for a long, long time.

And, by the way, the anti-Trump coalition in this country is far bigger than the pro-Biden coalition in this country.

And I think it's notable that whenever someone talks about even the possibility of an alternative, even if it's Kamala Harris, who has, as pointed out, has not polled terribly well over the last few years, it kind of -- there's like kind of a fresh air around it.

There's an energy around any alternative to the kind of Biden narrative that I think is beyond problematic but also exhausting for so many people.

FRANKLIN FOER: Yes.

Ali, with Kamala Harris, how much is she affecting the calculus among Congressional Democrats?

If the dam hasn't broken, is it because that they don't have that much confidence in the alternative?

ALI VITALI: I do think it's striking that every person that we've seen come out so far, and we're only talking about 20, 21 people at this point, but no one says, or at least not that I can recall, and Kamala Harris should be the nominee.

We've had some people say that they would prefer that.

Certainly, Jim Clyburn is one of those people.

But no one is really laying out what that next path needs to look like.

There's no coalescing around one idea.

I will say, for the entire time that I have tracked Kamala Harris in the White House, and I've done so closely, solely because she is historic and it's important, the blueprint that she sets, there is more comfortability around her now that I have heard from elected Democrats on the Hill and donors than ever before.

And I think the thing to remember, too, is as we watch money dry up, she was always a prolific fundraiser.

ASHLEY PARKER: And she's a former prosecutor running against a convicted felon, and there's a sense that she could take that case compellingly.

FRANKLIN FOER: Unfortunately, we need to leave it there for now.

Thanks to our panelists for being here and sharing your reporting.

And to our viewers at home, thanks for joining us.

For more on Donald Trump's strategy for returning to the White House, visit theatlantic.com.

I'm Franklin Foer.

Good night from Washington.